When Google’s Vic Gundotra says mobile apps are not the future and consumers will turn to the mobile web, you cannot help but think that they are hypocrites. After all, they have created some powerful apps for the iPhone and have developed the Android Market where consumers can download apps of all kinds. Mobile application distribution company GetJar and its CEO Ilja Laurs also forecast a peak in app development in 2009, followed by a slow decline. Today, CMO of Getjar Patrick Mork fired back at Google and clearly stated that apps are here to stay and will not be overrun by the mobile web.
So has the age of apps ended and will companies stop producing mobile applications as the pendulum of sentiment swings fully back to the mobile web? Will Getjar's prediction of a flourishing future for apps come true? What we believe each of the forecasts points to is the future of mobile when the functional gap between mobile web services and applications is closed.
As I mentioned in my previous post, ultimately a developer’s decision to build a mobile web service or native application will largely depend on the nature of the data (static or dynamic) and the expectation of the end user. As a general guideline, we believe that services that utilize dynamic data (that is, data that change frequently) will lend themselves well to the mobile web, whereas services that use data that changes infrequently (or never), and services which consumers expect to have without the need to make an mobile internet connection, will more likely exist as on-device applications.
We have Apple’s iPhone app store to thank for the increased visibility, accessibility, and demand of mobile services. Now, several others, including RIM, LG, Nokia, have launched their own app stores. It is quickly becoming apparent, though, that the app store phenomenon that has enabled apps to become so popular could and likely will become an Achilles’ heel. Early on, a major benefit of being on the app stores was visibility and distribution – basically, cheap marketing. The stores are crowded, disorganized, and remind me of the issues that mobile carriers went through with their own on-deck catalogues! Now, discovery has become a problem, requiring developers to market apps much in the same way that they would market mobile sites. Lee Williams, executive director of the non-profit Symbian Foundation, aptly pointed to the fact that app stores are simply “buckets.” In addition to the lack of user-friendly stores, app store owners are censoring the content and in many cases are editorializing what lands in the “What’s Hot” sections.
The bottom line: all things being equal, we believe that consumers will always choose the fully open and uncensored option over “semi-open” alternatives. As soon as the gap between mobile web and mobile applications is closed (much in the way it is now on PCs), with few exceptions, the pendulum will swing back to the mobile web.
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